Thursday, March 20, 2008

California Statewide Housing & Land Roundup


New FHA mortgage limits in California give Santa Clara, 13 other counties maximum $729,750

3/5/2008 [San Jose Mercury News]

WASHINGTON - The government today raised the mortgage limits for loans guaranteed by the Federal Housing Administration in 14 high-cost California counties.

C.A.R. reports sales decrease 29.8 percent, median home price falls 21.9 percent
2/28/2008 [C.A.R. Online News]
C.A.R. reports sales decrease 29.8 percent, median home price falls 21.9 percent

Northern California Land & Housing







Even in Storied Napa Wine Country, Foreclosure Crisis Hits Home
[SFGate.com]

For many residents of this, one of the most storied valleys in the world, life is still a bowl of grapes. But beyond the picturesque vineyards and stonewalled estates, times are shaky, the future unclear.

Northern California’s Housing Market Remains Frozen

3/14/2008 [Housing Wire]

The waiting game between northern California’s Bay Area buyers, sellers and lending institutions continued last month as sales dipped below 4,000 for the second month in a row, a real estate information service reported Thursday.

Home sales, prices continue slide

3/13/2008 [SFGate.com]

http://feeds.sfgate.com/%7Ef/sfgate/rss/feeds/news?i=6xpcGXF

Bay Area homes sales experienced another sluggish month in February and the median price dipped. Both were hammered by the credit crunch and an ongoing game of chicken between buyers and sellers…

Home building permits fall 66 percent
2/28/2008 [Sacramento Business Journal] http://feeds.bizjournals.com/%7Ea/vertical_51?i=WaMfLo
New-home building permits plummeted 66 percent last month in the Sacramento region, compared to January 2007, the latest evidence of a still-struggling housing market.

Centex, Pulte dump land in Rancho

3/9/2008 [Sacramento Business Journal]

http://feeds.bizjournals.com/%7Ea/vertical_51?i=X179Kh

Two of Sacramento's top builders have unloaded 250 acres approved for new homes in Rancho Cordova for 16 cents on the dollar -- the first major land sell-off in the capital area since housing sales collapsed last year.

February 2008 Sacramento region home sales and price trends
San Mateo County median home prices and sales
Sonoma: Sales down 44% - Price down 22%
Santa Clara County median home prices and sales
San Mateo County median home prices and sales

Southern California Land & Housing Roundup


Southland home prices tumble fast

3/14/2008 [Los Angeles Times - Top News]

Region sees a 19% decline from the peak in less than a year. Experts predict a continuing slide.

Southern California home prices are now 19% below their peak last year, and the surprisingly rapid decline is leading experts to predict that the housing slump will be worse than initially thought -- surpassing the severe downturn of the 1990s.

http://feeds.latimes.com/%7Ea/latimes/news?i=vXQXbJ

http://feeds.latimes.com/%7Er/latimes/news/%7E4/250894889

Region sees a 19% decline from the peak in less than a year. Experts predict a continuing slide. Southern California home prices are now 19%...

Downtown not the center of it all

3/13/2008 [L.A. Times - Business]

The residential boom many expected in an area with 'rough edges' didn't happen. Now, condo prices are skidding. Downtown Los Angeles has seen a...

Silver Lining in Downtown L.A. Downturn

3/13/2008 [Business Wire Construction & Property News]

LOS ANGELES--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Bucking the trend of downtown Los Angeles’ delayed developments, rising residential inventory and sagging home sales, The South

Orange County home prices and sales, February 2008

National Trends & Forecast


Case Shiller Housing Composite Negative for 2007

2/26/2008 [Seeking Alpha]

That's gonna leave a mark: Data through December 2007 for the Case-Shiller Home Price Index shows broad based declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States.

Housing market slump likely to continue into 2009 - and that's without ...

2/11/2008

Ivy Zelman's view of the US housing market is gloomy, but it's probably the most realistic. ... Housing market slump likely to continue into 2009 - and that's without a recession.

Housing Wire: Wells Fargo: 200+ Housing Markets are in Trouble

2/29/2008 [Housing Wire]

Wells Fargo & Co., the second largest mortgage lender in the U.S., said earlier this week that it was making changes to its lending guidelines in more than 200 housing markets spanning 24 states and Washington D.C. that it identified as either “soft,” “distressed,” or “severely distressed.”

Fed: Homeowner equity falls to lowest on record

3/6/2008 [San Jose Mercury News]

NEW YORK - Americans' percentage of equity in their homes fell below 50 percent for the first time on record since 1945, the Federal Reserve said Thursday.

National Homes Sales & Pricing


Calculated Risk: New Home Sales: Cliff Diving

2/27/2008 [Calculated Risk]

Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions for the last 45 years. New Home sales were falling prior to every recession, with the exception of the business investment led recession of 2001.

Where foreclosures > # of Homes Sold

3/1/2008 [The Big Picture]
Speaking of charts: Floyd Norris' always interesting Off the Charts column this week looks at foreclosures: "Mortgage foreclosure notices are going out so fast that in some states the number of new foreclosure proceedings each month is greater than the number of homes sold that month.

Homeowner Ponders Whether to Cut and Run

3/5/2008 [RealEstateJournal.com Residential Real Estate News]

http://feeds.realestatejournal.com/%7Ea/wsj/realestate_journal?i=CIrvnF

A former Las Vegas resident has relocated to Phoenix and is renting out his home for less than his monthly mortgage payment. June Fletcher looks into whether he should sell now, or hold out until the housing market improves.

Freddie Mac CEO: Home Price Drops Only 1/3 Done

3/12/2008 [The Big Picture]

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/images/2008/03/12/freddie_ceo.png

It's only one man's opinion, but Freddie Mac Chief Executive Office Richard Syron had some rather astounding comments to analysts today:

- HOME PRICE DROPS "ONLY" ONE THIRD DONE
- WE'RE IN A 100-YEAR STORM IN HOUSING
- US IS IN WORST HOUSING MARKET IN A CENTURY
- APARTMENT'S ROLE IN HOUSING TO BE "MUCH BIGGER"

Mortgage Markets Roundup

Industry group: home foreclosures at record high

3/6/2008 [San Jose Mercury News]

WASHINGTON - Home foreclosures soared to an all-time high in the final quarter of last year and are likely to keep on rising, underscoring the suffering of distressed homeowners and the growing danger the housing meltdown poses for the economy.

Private Profits, Public Risk

3/20/08 [Wall Street Journal]

The fall in housing prices and mortgage values has exposed a serious flaw in the idea that private, shareholder-owned, government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) can be effective instruments of government policy.

Fannie, Freddie Reins Loosened

3/19/2008 [WSJ]

http://feeds.wsjonline.com/%7Ea/wsj/xml/rss/3_7011?i=5BbZCQ

Fannie and Freddie's regulator reduced the capital the firms must hold to 20% from 30% in an effort to help boost the ailing housing market. The move could provide up to $200 billion in immediate liquidity to the MBS market.

Fannie and Freddie's regulator reduced the capital the firms must hold to 20% from 30% in an effort to help boost the ailing housing market. The move could provide up to $200 billion in immediate liquidity to the MBS market.

http://feeds.wsjonline.com/%7Ea/wsj/xml/rss/3_7011?i=5BbZCQ

http://feeds.wsjonline.com/%7Er/wsj/xml/rss/3_7011/%7E4/254277486
















The next shoe to drop in housing

3/13/2008 [CNN Money]

http://rss.cnn.com/%7Ea/rss/money_latest?i=YaKwex

The credit crunch has finally hit the traditional mortgage market.

FINRA Warns on Reverse Mortgages

3/13/2008 [Housing Wire]

There aren’t many areas of the mortgage origination business that are booming, but one area — reverse mortgages — has seen high growth despite the industry downturn. And it’s now an area that financial experts are growing increasingly concerned about.

In the grip of implacable subprime forces

3/9/2008 [Financial Times]

Months into the subprime meltdown, economists and policymakers in the US seem no closer to agreement about what, if anything, to do.

Homebuilders in the News


Calculated Risk: NAHB on Housing: "Deepest, most rapid downswing since the Great Depression"

3/4/2008 [Calculated Risk]

From MarketWatch: Rapid deterioration Housing is in its "deepest, most rapid downswing since the Great Depression," the chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders said Wednesday

Single-Family Housing Starts Sink to a New Low

3/17/2008 [WSJ Real Estate Journal]

http://feeds.realestatejournal.com/%7Ea/wsj/realestate_journal?i=SaOKyY

February single-family housing starts decreased 6.7% to 707,000. Building permits fell 7.8% to a 978,000 annual rate, the lowest level since September 1991.

Two Projects in Default Dog Big Home Builders

3/17/2008 [WSJ Real Estate Journal]

http://feeds.realestatejournal.com/%7Ef/wsj/realestate_journal_commercial?i=lOLEU8F

Massive Las Vegas projects involving Toll, KB Home and Lennar received default notices on about $765 million in debt.

Homebuilder Blues: NAHB/Wells Fargo Home Builder Ratings March 2008

3/17/2008 [Paper Economy Blog]
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZVI0jJyogo5Z_4_lXWBijZKqz2tSTKPPjglztgkAgSSnK3GRxaTBtPet_BaricdXI9ogL8o7obtbgFVC5p0M7uyvT823DCVvCaNp9G7JDYL6t9NxqhDBlfSrOgDSQ5emqemZ8UTgA1wzx/s320/blues.jpg

Today, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their Housing Market Index (HMI) showing continued evidence that the new home market is experiencing a prolonged bout of depression

Woes mount for SunCal

3/11/2008 [Orange County Register]

Irvine-based land developer faces rising claims from contractors, suppliers and lenders.

Toll Brothers Warns Of Risk Tied to Ventures

3/11/2008 [WSJ Real Estate Journal]

http://feeds.realestatejournal.com/%7Ef/wsj/realestate_journal_commercial?i=G8Hou5F

The company said it could suffer 'significant' losses if its joint-venture partners don't honor their obligations to certain development projects.

Lennar stock soars 8.68% on buyout rumors

http://www.snl.com/interactivex/images/printsnllogo.gif2/26/2008 [SNL Exclusive]
Whispers in the market say a group from the United Arab Emirates may buy the Miami-based homebuilder, according to Reuters.Industries: Homebuilder Referenced Companies: Standard Pacific Corp., Centex Corp., Lennar Corp., Beazer Homes USA...

Calculated Risk: New Home Months of Supply

2/27/2008 [Calculated Risk]

“Months of supply" is at the highest level since 1981. Note that this doesn't include cancellations, but that was true for the earlier periods too.

Bankrupt Dunmore Homes liquidating assets

2/29/2008 [Sacramento Bee]

Bankrupt Granite Bay home builder Dunmore Homes appears headed for the scrapheap after more than a half century of building homes in the Sacramento area.

Research Commentary: New Home Inventories Slide

http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/RealtororgResearchHeadlines/%7E4/2429261002/28/2008 [NAR Realtor.org]
Manager of Regional Economics Ken Fears discusses the latest new home inventory release.

Real Estate Blog Roundup


Stimulus Plan May Fail on Jumbo Loans

2/21/2008 [Hanley Wood]

Although Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can now purchase and guarantee home loans of up to $729,750, they won't be traded in a key secondary market, limiting the prospect for sharply lower rates on "jumbo" mortgages.
A February Beatdown for the Size-Adjusted Median

3/7/2008 [Piggington’s Econo-Almanac]

Both median-based price indicators were thoroughly abused last month. Between January and February, the size-adjusted median price declined 5.7 percent for single family homes and 7.7 percent for condos. That's in one month, friends. Brutal.

OFHEO: Home Prices Diverge Between Purchases, Refinancing Activity

2/26/2008 [Housing Wire]

U.S. home prices in the conforming mortgage market diverged sharply depending on whether the mortgage was a purchase or refinance transaction, according to data released Tuesday by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.
Calculated Risk: We're all subprime now!

3/19/2008 [Calculated Risk]

From the BBC: The crunch bites deeper in the US (hat tip TMB) Kevin Logan of Dresdner Kleinwort, one of the less gloomy New York economists, summarizes the state of play as the credit crunch has spread to different types of assets…

Meme of the Day: 50% Housing Equity

3/9/2008 4:17:40 AM [Housing Sector News and Analysis from Seeking Alpha] [Felix Salmon]

Mark Stein picked up on it Thursday; the WSJ splashed it across the front page Friday; Whitney Tilson has included it in his 75-page slide show entitled "Why We Are Still in the Early Innings of the Bursting of the Housing Bubble.”

The Mess That Greenspan Made: Why stop at reducing the principal?

3/4/2008 [TMTGM Blog]

Geez, they should just get right to the chase and start cutting checks for tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of dollars for each homeowner who now owes more than their house is worth. And what about credit cards and auto loans? Geez, they should just get right to the chase and start cutting checks for tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of dollars for each homeowner who now owes more than their house is worth.

And what about credit cards and auto loans? Why not get out ahead of the curve on those problems that are now starting to blossom?

Reduce my outstanding balance!

Gimme some free cheese!

While we're at it, let's ...

Housing Wire: OFHEO: Home Prices Diverge Between Purchases, Refinancing Activity

2/26/2008 [Housing Wire]

U.S. home prices in the conforming mortgage market diverged sharply depending on whether the mortgage was a purchase or refinance transaction, according to data released Tuesday by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.

Jumbo Mortgage Risk Will Topple the Teetering GSEs

2/29/2008 [Seeking Alpha]

When President Bush signed the Economic Stimulus Act into law making jumbo mortgages GSE insurable, he may have unwittingly pushed our GSEs, Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE), already on tilt, over the edge.

How Big Cities Will Weather the Housing Slump

2/27/2008 [Hot Property]

A new report from bond rating agency Standard & Poors says the finances of the nation’s largest cities should be able to withstand the housing slump. Yes, I know, S&P has been criticized for not calling all the trouble in subprime mortgages early enough.

Housing Wire: OFHEO: Home Prices Diverge Between Purchases, Refinancing Activity

2/26/2008 [Housing Wire]

U.S. home prices in the conforming mortgage market diverged sharply depending on whether the mortgage was a purchase or refinance transaction, according to data released Tuesday by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.

Monday, March 10, 2008

Bonfire of the GSE's?


Many major news outlets are openly speculating just where the next land mine will be tripped along the Mortgage Market Maginot Line. Flying like an Elephant above the proceedings
are the very woolly mammoths who trumpet the loudest rescue message. Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac, The GSE's, the party line goes, will save the American Homeowner. There's the awkward matter of instability and poor constitution in the recent past, but let's Move On and not speak of indelicate matters. Elephants don't fly. This week begins with buzz that Fannie & Freddie may be in need of vast assistance. Barron's Online asks "Is Fannie Mae the Next Government Bailout?"

Sunday, March 9, 2008

Boomer Echo Chamber


The San Francisco Chronicle's Sunday edition caught up with the Bubble business with a piece reporting USC findings that put the Boomers behind the 8 Ball.

The Boomer spawn are making their own waves in Real Estate. Jessica Lautz, Senior Research Analyst at the National Association of Realtors recently profiled the Echo Boom buyers who will be responsible for buying the glut of homes saturating the market.

A Boogey Man on CNN Scared Me Tonight

What's to be made of Bernanke's bombshell regarding lenders lowering the PRINCIPAL on loans to ease the mortgage crisis? CNN weighs in...



Land Dumping


From Dennis McCoy at The Sacramento Business Journal, comes a report that broke over the weekend of a major discounted sell-off in the once hot Rancho Cordova market. Pulte Homes and Centex sold 250 acres for 16 cents on the dollar.

Saturday, March 8, 2008

Gimme Shelter: Bay Area March Round-up


While the Southland and especially Fresno and the interior counties are feeling the lion's share of the mortgage mauling, San Francisco and The Bay Area in general are fairly stable. A mass of new condos are going online, though in the higher brackets. Recently minted FHA loan limits may break a log-jam in one segment of the housing market, while a strong local economy may yet spare homeowners from ARM shocks.

News stories around the nine counties:
FHA Loan Limit Ceiling Rises for 14 California Counties
The new maximum applied to Santa Clara County, and to much of the Bay Area and the Central Coast, including San Benito, San Mateo, San Francisco, Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, Santa Cruz and Monterey counties. The limit rose to $662,500 in Sonoma County and to $557,500 in Solano County.

Median Price of California Home falls by One-Fifth, Sales off Nearly a Third Over January 2007
The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during January 2008 was $430,370, a 21.9 percent decrease from the $551,220 median for January 2007, C.A.R. reported. The January 2008 median price fell 9.7 percent compared with December’s revised $476,380 median price.

California Foreclosures Surge, Stockton National Epicenter
California had 57,158 properties reporting at least one default filing, the most of any state.